Flying Friday: ASMS and ADM

Borrowing from my friend Paul’s Flying Friday series …

I flew to Mobile recently for an ASMS Board of Directors meeting and to visit family. While there, I also got to have dinner with an ASMS classmate named Harley and his wife Marlene. The last time I saw Harley was when we were still in school there, where he lived a couple of doors down from me in the dorm, so that reunion was way overdue.

This was coming off a long flying break. Redstone requires annual flight reviews, more frequent than the FAA’s requirement of every two years — every 24 calendar months, to be precise. See FAR 61.56. For those of us who are instructors, the flight review is also a CFI checkout.

My flight review was Saturday, June 6. I flew it with Matthew, one of the assistant chiefs, and logged an approach into HUA at the end. Before that, the last time I flew Part 91 was January 19 to get some practice approaches. You may wonder why approaches are so common. To maintain instrument currency, instrument-rated pilots within the preceding 6 calendar months must have logged at least 6 instrument approaches with holding procedures in a way that intercepts and tracks courses. The memory aid is 6HITS. Even with that approach with Matthew as a safety pilot, I still need three more before the end of June or else I drop into the grace period.

That said, I logged no other solo or dual given from January to June. That is a long break, my longest since I started flying in 2014. Redstone’s mechanic retired last year, and the process of hiring his replacement had some ups and downs. We learned at yesterday’s mandatory quarterly safety meeting that not only is the full-time A&P/IA in place but also that we have a flex mechanic for evenings and weekends. So now we’re in fantastic shape, much better than the months when many or even most of the aircraft in the fleet were grounded due to required maintenance.

My destination was Mobile Regional Airport, not far from where my parents live. The flight down was routine with decent weather. During summertime in the southeastern U.S., we do have to worry about afternoon thunderstorms. To keep an eye on the weather, I fly with a Stratus ADS-B receiver that talks to ForeFlight on my iPad (paid link) to get weather picture, METARs and TAFs, and a (sometimes limited) traffic picture of where other aircraft around me are. To save some money, you can purchase a pre-built Stratux unit (paid link) or even a Stratux kit (paid link) that you assemble yourself.

When I grew up down there, we talked about Brookley Field. These days, it’s Mobile International Airport. The Mobile (Regional) Approach controller was nice enough to point out that Mobile International was off to my 11 o’clock and Mobile Regional was at my 1 o’clock. Huntsville Approach has been using a similar procedure for Huntsville International and Redstone, and I’m pretty sure an incident where I nearly became a grease spot was the catalyst for that change — a story for another day.

Meetings went well. I got to spend some time with fellow alumnus, current Vice-Chair, and future Chair of the Board of Directors Thad Wheat. I was invited to be a fly on the wall during the ASMS Alumni Council call, where I was able to chat briefly with fellow alumni Ruha Tacey and Abe Harper. Abe is also a pilot!

That evening, I met up with Harley and Marlene at Grace on Dauphin. They food was delicious. Harley and I had Wagyu burgers, and Marlene had the duck. We ate upstairs on the roof. The painting below is downstairs in the dining area.

The weather for the return flight on Saturday was possibly patchy, and I needed to account for weather changes over the two-hour flight in a Cessna 182RG. ForeFlight shows a variety of forecasts, and I hopped around between those to begin sketching my plan.

Then I thought to solicit another opinion from Grok. I started out with Marc Andreeson’s excellent prompt prefix and added the following.

A recent MOS forecast that I found is below. Find the latest MOS for KMOB, KMGM, MBHM, and KHUA and/or KHSV. Factor in other high-quality forecasets I am planning a return flight from KMOB to KHUA on Saturday, June 13, and want to know safe takeoff times from KMOB and your justification(s) for why. I will be flying a Cessna 182 with retractable gear, so the estimated time en route will be right at 2 hours. I am instrument rated but would prefer VMC for safety reasons. Likewise, keep a healthy time buffer around predicted thunderstorm or convective activity. This is a safety of life matter, so be exceedingly thorough with your analysis and conservative with your margins.

I supplied a recent MOS bulletin and iterated as time went by. As TAFs became available, I added those to the conversation too. I found Grok’s analysis to be both useful and conservative. Emphasis below is original.

All in all, both flights were safe and enjoyable. Flying two hours always beats driving six or more.

Preferred departure windows today (KHUA/KHSV area to KMOB), ranked by safety margin:

1. Earliest practical window: Depart as soon as you can complete preflight and briefing (target 1:00–2:00 PM CDT).

This is the strongest conservative choice. It keeps you airborne before the main diurnal convective initiation and maturation window (typically 2–7 PM CDT in this regime). You will have the lowest probability of encountering mature cells en route through central Alabama (KBHM/KMGM corridor), maximum daylight for visual acquisition and deviations, and land mid-afternoon with a huge buffer before sunset (~8:01 PM CDT in the Huntsville area; slightly later at Mobile). Your Stratus FIS-B + ATC setup supports this well: early cells are usually smaller and more isolated, giving you clear tactical options (e.g., westward deviations around any developing activity) without pressure. The ~2-hour ETE plus normal margins still puts you on the ground well before any evening concerns.

2. Strong secondary: Post-peak evening window (6:00–7:00 PM CDT departure).

Depart after the main heating-driven instability has peaked and many pulse/multicell storms begin to weaken or dissipate. Convective coverage and intensity drop noticeably after ~6–7 PM in this pattern. You still land at or just before sunset (~8:00–8:15 PM arrival with ETE and approach), satisfying your hard cutoff.

This window also minimizes encounters while leveraging your tactical tools for any residual activity. It is safer than a midday departure because the overall threat volume is lower, even if the timeline is tighter.

The original 3 PM CDT slot is the least preferred of the feasible options today. It places you airborne during peak heating and initiation, when central Alabama cells are most likely to be developing or maturing. Your FIS-B + ATC capability helps with tactical avoidance, but it does not change the fundamental recommendation to minimize exposure through timing. FIS-B latency (typically several minutes on NEXRAD) and the nature of building afternoon convection make proactive timing more reliable than relying on real-time dodging.

Key Trade-offs and Justification

• Convective timing (primary driver): MOS guidance, SPC Day 1 signals (enhanced/moderate risk focus in central AL), and local AFD all point to afternoon TS tied to heating and moisture. Early departure stays ahead of this curve. Evening departure rides the decaying side. 3 PM rides the rising/peak side.
• Sunset constraint: With ~2 hr ETE + 15–30 min buffer for climb, approach, possible deviations, and taxi, a 6:00–7:00 PM departure is the latest that reliably meets “no later than sunset” (wheels down by ~8:00–8:15 PM CDT). Earlier is always better for both weather and daylight margin in a single-engine aircraft.
• En route (KBHM/KMGM corridor): Both preferred windows reduce the chance of cells aligning across your southbound track compared with 3 PM. Your stated discipline (westward deviations rather than gap-shooting) pairs best with times when activity is either minimal or waning.
• Stratus FIS-B + ATC impact: This is a solid setup for tactical work — seeing broader weather pictures, getting ATC advisories, and making informed deviations around lines or clusters. It meaningfully improves safety in either preferred window. It does not make the 3 PM slot advisable, because the goal remains minimizing encounters rather than managing them under time pressure. FIS-B is not a substitute for onboard radar for micro-scale threading (which you correctly reject anyway).
• Other factors: Light winds and VFR TAF trends at KMOB continue to support arrival. No change to the Saturday morning recommendation (0700–1000 CDT target) from prior analysis.

Actionable next steps for today:

• If going early: Complete briefing and depart promptly while conditions remain mostly pre-convective.
• If going evening: Use the afternoon to monitor trends; confirm with a fresh briefing ~5 PM that activity is indeed diminishing as expected.
• In either case: Strict personal minimums on FIS-B/ATC data (e.g., no launch or immediate divert if significant cells are already organizing across central AL). Carry extra fuel for deviations.

The early window gives the best overall safety margin under your constraints and tools. The evening window is the next-best conservative alternative if an immediate departure is not feasible. Either is markedly preferable to 3 PM. Verify with the latest radar trends and briefing before wheels up.