Flying Friday: ASMS and ADM

Borrowing from my friend Paul’s Flying Friday series …

I flew to Mobile recently for an ASMS Board of Directors meeting and to visit family. While there, I also got to have dinner with an ASMS classmate named Harley and his wife Marlene. The last time I saw Harley was when we were still in school there, where he lived a couple of doors down from me in the dorm, so that reunion was way overdue.

ASMS front entrance with sign celebrating accolades

This was coming off a long flying break. Redstone requires annual flight reviews, more frequent than the FAA’s requirement of every two years — every 24 calendar months, to be precise. See FAR 61.56. For those of us who are instructors, the flight review is also a CFI checkout.

My flight review was Saturday, June 6. I flew it with Matthew, one of the assistant chiefs, and logged an approach into HUA at the end. Before that, the last time I flew Part 91 was January 19 to get some practice approaches. You may wonder why approaches are so common. To maintain instrument currency, instrument-rated pilots within the preceding 6 calendar months must have logged at least 6 instrument approaches with holding procedures in a way that intercepts and tracks courses. The memory aid is 6HITS. Even with that approach with Matthew as a safety pilot, I still need three more before the end of June or else I drop into the grace period.

That said, I logged no other solo or dual given from January to June. That is a long break, my longest since I started flying in 2014. Redstone’s mechanic retired last year, and the process of hiring his replacement had some ups and downs. We learned at yesterday’s mandatory quarterly safety meeting that not only is the full-time A&P/IA in place but also that we have a flex mechanic for evenings and weekends. So now we’re in fantastic shape, much better than the months when many or even most of the aircraft in the fleet were grounded due to required maintenance.

Greg as Pilot-in-Command

My destination was Mobile Regional Airport, not far from where my parents live. The flight down was routine with decent weather. During summertime in the southeastern U.S., we do have to worry about afternoon thunderstorms. To keep an eye on the weather, I fly with a Stratus ADS-B receiver that talks to ForeFlight on my iPad (paid link) to get weather picture, METARs and TAFs, and a (sometimes limited) traffic picture of where other aircraft around me are. To save some money, you can purchase a pre-built Stratux unit (paid link) or even a Stratux kit (paid link) that you assemble yourself.

When I grew up down there, we talked about Brookley Field. These days, it’s Mobile International Airport. The Mobile (Regional) Approach controller was nice enough to point out that Mobile International was off to my 11 o’clock and Mobile Regional was at my 1 o’clock. Huntsville Approach has been using a similar procedure for Huntsville International and Redstone, and I’m pretty sure an incident where I nearly became a grease spot was the catalyst for that change — a story for another day.

Meetings went well. I got to spend some time with fellow alumnus, current Vice-Chair, and future Chair of the Board of Directors Thad Wheat. I was invited to be a fly on the wall during the ASMS Alumni Council call, where I was able to chat briefly with fellow alumni Ruha Tacey and Abe Harper. Abe is also a pilot!

ASMS alumni and former hallmates Harley and Greg

That evening, I met up with Harley and Marlene at Grace on Dauphin. They food was delicious. Harley and I had Wagyu burgers, and Marlene had the duck. We ate upstairs on the roof. The painting below is downstairs in the dining area.

Painting of a young woman that hangs inside Grace on Dauphin

The weather for the return flight on Saturday was possibly patchy, and I needed to account for weather changes over the two-hour flight in a Cessna 182RG. ForeFlight shows a variety of forecasts, and I hopped around between those to begin sketching my plan.

Then I thought to solicit another opinion from Grok. I started out with Marc Andreeson’s excellent prompt prefix and added the following.

A recent MOS forecast that I found is below. Find the latest MOS for KMOB, KMGM, MBHM, and KHUA and/or KHSV. Factor in other high-quality forecasets I am planning a return flight from KMOB to KHUA on Saturday, June 13, and want to know safe takeoff times from KMOB and your justification(s) for why. I will be flying a Cessna 182 with retractable gear, so the estimated time en route will be right at 2 hours. I am instrument rated but would prefer VMC for safety reasons. Likewise, keep a healthy time buffer around predicted thunderstorm or convective activity. This is a safety of life matter, so be exceedingly thorough with your analysis and conservative with your margins.

I supplied a recent MOS bulletin and iterated as time went by. As TAFs became available, I added those to the conversation too. I found Grok’s analysis to be both useful and conservative. Emphasis below is original.

All in all, both flights were safe and enjoyable. Flying two hours always beats driving six or more.

Updated analysis as of the latest 0000 UTC June 13 GFS MOS + current METARs/TAFs (early Saturday morning).

These are the most recent station-specific products available. They confirm the pattern we have tracked consistently and reinforce the same recommendation with fresh numbers.

Key Signals from the New Data for Today (Saturday, June 13)

GFS MOS (0000 UTC cycle) — Focus on June 13 afternoon/evening columns (15Z–00Z+):

KMOB (departure): Moderate convective signal. T06 peaks at 44/9 (15Z), then 17/1, 14/2, 17/0. P06 up to 33% midday/afternoon. Mostly scattered/broken clouds, good ceilings (CIG 8) and visibility. Cleaner than inland stations but not zero risk (consistent with the PROB30 in the new TAF for late afternoon TSRA).
Inland stations (KHUA/KHSV, KBHM, KMGM, KDYA): Clearly higher risk. T06/T12 values are elevated in the afternoon window:
- KHUA/KHSV: T06 spikes to 39/26, 40/15, 36/2; T12 up to 58/28 and 54/7.
- KBHM: T06 to 39/22, 26/4; T12 to 42/24.
- KMGM: T06 to 39/19; T12 to 39/19.
- KDYA: Similar elevated afternoon values.
Higher P06/P12 inland (frequently 30–70% ranges in afternoon periods), more broken/overcast clouds, occasional lower ceilings (down to 1–6), reduced visibility, and BR mentions during convective windows.
Strong diurnal ramp: probabilities rise through midday/afternoon and peak in the evening before dropping overnight.

Current METARs/TAFs (early Saturday morning):

All stations VFR or near-VFR with light winds and high moisture.
KMOB TAF: Clean VFR overall, with PROB30 1319/1324 for 3SM TSRA/BR and CB late afternoon. No issues for a morning departure.
Inland TAFs (KMGM, KBHM, KHSV): PROB30 or TEMPO groups for late-afternoon TSRA/BR/CB (e.g., 1321/1324 windows) plus some early BR. KHUA has no new TAF in this set but prior data showed afternoon SHRA and lowering ceilings.
Pattern holds: Coastal departure point stays favorable; the en route corridor and arrival area carry the higher afternoon convective risk.

Recommended Window for Today’s Return (KMOB → KHUA)

Best conservative window (still strongly preferred and now immediately actionable): Wheels-up from KMOB as soon as practical this morning (target 0700–1000 CDT, or earlier if you are ready after sunrise ~5:30–6 AM CDT).

Why this timing is optimal with the latest data:

Keeps the entire flight (including the central Alabama segment via/near KBHM/KMGM/KTCL/KSEM) ahead of the elevated T06/T12 and P probabilities that develop inland in the afternoon.
Lands at KHUA mid-morning, well before the PROB30/TEMPO TSRA/SHRA windows and lowering ceilings shown in the inland TAFs and MOS.
Avoids the late-afternoon PROB30 at KMOB itself (1319/1324).
Maximizes VMC, gives the largest buffer around convective activity, and provides maximum daylight and deviation options.
Aligns with your preference for VMC + healthy margins around thunderstorms.

Evening departure (~1800–1900 CDT) is riskier today because of the explicit late-afternoon PROB30/TEMPO convective language across the inland stations and the KHUA-area signals. It would still meet the sunset constraint but carries higher exposure.

Mid-afternoon departures remain suboptimal for the same reasons as before.

En Route and Practical Notes

KMOB’s TAF supports a straightforward departure this morning.
The MOS and TAFs confirm the inland corridor (KBHM/KMGM area) will see the highest convective probabilities this afternoon — exactly where your westward-arcing preference and Stratus + ATC tools will be most useful if needed.
Current early-morning conditions are benign (VFR/light winds), so the window is open now.

Bottom line: The newest 0000 UTC MOS + current TAFs strengthen (rather than change) the prior recommendation. Morning departure from KMOB today is the clearest, lowest-risk choice that gives you the widest safety margins while fully leveraging your setup. Brief with the final radar trends and any amended TAFs before wheels-up, and apply your personal minimums on the weather tools. Safe flight.